What Are the Odds?

What Are the Odds?

Joubert gives Drew Mitchell his marching orders in 2010

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Call it sour grapes at not having won the trophy for about 43 years (might only be 15 years, but it doesn’t feel like we’ve actually won it in my lifetime), but I’m really struggling to get excited for the Bledisloe Test at the weekend. I think gambling is the answer to forcing some relevance out of watching the Wallabies inevitably getting towelled up by the All Blacks. But what to bet on? Obviously not on the head to head, at time of writing, are sitting at $4 and change outsiders for the first test (despite what Steve Hansen says – I’ll have some of what he was on when he said Wallabies are favourites for this one). I need something more exotic. But scrolling through the markets - Halftime/Fulltime Score, First Try Scorer, Last Try Scorer, First Score Type….it all feels a bit tired to be honest. Who really watches the game for all the tries and goals anymore? It's all about the lads with the whistles these days. So, I thought why don’t I create a market for something that I feel is more relevant to the game today.

With that I present to you, the odds for first player to get red carded for the first test in Sydney-

Australia	Odds		New Zealand	Odds
Michael Hooper	$2.20		Liam Squire	$25.00
Israel Folau	$2.75		Beauden Barrett	$30.00
Tolu Latu	$3.00		Sam Cane	$30.00
Sekope Kepu	$3.10		Jack Goodhue	$30.00
Dane Haylett-Petty	$3.15		Sam Whitelock	$32.00
Lukhan Tui	$3.30		Aaron Smith	$33.00
Marika Koroibete	$3.30		Joe Moody	$33.00
Rob Simmons	$4.20		Kieran Read	$35.00
Adam Coleman	$4.20		Owen Franks	$35.00
Reece Hodge	$4.50		Codie Taylor	$38.00
Will Genia	$4.50		Rieko Ioane	$38.00
Bernard Foley	$5.00		Ryan Crotty	$40.00
Kurtley Beale	$5.00		Ben Smith	$40.00
David Pocock	$5.00		Brodie Retallick	$40.00
Tom Robertson	$5.50		Jordie Barrett	$40.00
Ned Hanigan	$8.50		TJ Perenara	$80.00
Nick Phipps	$8.50		Ardie Savea	$80.00
Tom Banks	$8.70		Scott Barrett	$80.00
Taniela Tupou	$9.00		Damian McKenzie	$80.00
Allan Alaalatoa	$9.00		Nathan Harris	$80.00
Tatafu Polota-Nau	$9.00		Karl Tu’inukuafe	$80.00
Izack Rodda	$9.20		Ofa Tuungafasi	$80.00
Pete Samu	$9.20		Anton Lienert-Brown	$80.00
Other Australian Player	$10.00		Other New Zealand Player	$101.00
No Red Card	$500.00

Looking at the Aussies, I imagine Sekope Kepu will attract some punters at that price, also expecting money to come for Simmons at $4.20. Not expecting him to start, but if he gets on the pitch early then plenty of value in Polota-Nau at $9.00.

For the much-celebrated AB’s, once you move past the short priced Squire then there’s plenty of value to be had. Beauden Barrett is probably spot on for that price, but I think Aaron Smith or Sam Whitelock are the ones to take here. Expecting both to make the start, and both have got plenty of form for attracting the ire of the match day officials.

Tevita Kuridrani got good form for the red,

but will miss the clash with injury

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